Wednesday, September 26, 2012

Syrian “Lion” and Russian “Bear”–Best Friends Forever? (Part I)

(A year ago I didn’t expect that the Syrian uprising would last this long. It’s incredible–and tragic–that this conflict, now in its 18th month, might soon become a regional catastrophe. Almost from the beginning diplomats, academics, journalists, and ordinary people of goodwill were asking–and they are still asking--what, if anything, can we do about Syria? Without any really good options, diplomats pursued whatever seemed reasonable. For the US and its allies, including the Arab Gulf nations, a major obstacle has been Syria’s long-standing alliance with Russia. That’s why it’s important to examine how the Russian position has evolved--or failed to evolve--and to ask what this implies for the future of Russian interests in the Middle East. This is a timely subject, given the prominence of Syria in this week’s speeches and meetings at the UN.)


Before you read this post, click on the link for a great cartoon!
 
 
INTRODUCTION
 
The carnage in Syria is as unrelenting as it is horrific and the fighting has spread to nearly every corner of the country. The daily death toll often exceeds 100 (well over 300 on August 25th). The cumulative estimated total now stands at more than 23,000–whereas in May it was estimated at roughly 10,000. In September 2011 it was only about 5,000–but in August 2012 it had reached a record monthly total of nearly 5,000. There are more than 220,000 Syrian refugees in neighboring countries (Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq) and about 1.2 million who are internally displaced. Up to 2 million people inside the country are in need of humanitarian assistance (food, fuel, medicine, shelter). People have fled because civilians on the streets and in their homes--even hospitals–are being shelled and bombed as the government seeks to reassert its control over rebel-held areas. Coming out of Syria in late August were reports of yet another massacre, this time in Damascus suburb of Daraya--where the Syrian army plucked young men from the streets and homes and executed them and, according to opposition sources, also fired indiscriminately at fleeing civilians. [1]
On August 15th the UN Human Rights Commission released "a damning report" about the crimes against humanity–murder, torture, and extrajudicial killing-- being perpetrated by government of President Bashar al-Assad and its security forces. While the report doesn’t point its judgmental finger solely at the government--since it also collected evidence about crimes committed by rebel fighters--its investigative team concluded that in terms of "gravity, frequency and scale" the regime’s culpability far surpasses that of the insurgency. It documents how the brutality of regime’s tactics has steadily increased. One of its most significant findings: evidence supporting the rebel claim that security forces and pro-Assad militias were responsible for the Houla massacre. Human Rights Watch issued another highly disturbing report at the end of August, documenting government attacks on civilians waiting in bread lines. [2]
Syria’s descent into civil war had been going on for months, but it was only in mid-July that the Red Cross declared, officially, that the violence had attained the characteristics of a civil war, which under international law "grants all parties in a conflict the right to use appropriate force to achieve their aims" [3]. 
 
For both sides, the civil war is now a fight for survival. The rebels say they are fighting for the sake of the Syrian revolution–and ready to die for it– but they know what awaits them if they are defeated; they face being captured, tortured, imprisoned, and probably executed (and entire families may be wiped out). Among members of Syria’s minority communities (especially the Alawites, Assad’s group), and those Sunnis who have benefitted from ties to the regime, there is also a perception (warranted) that what they are caught up in is an existential struggle. While Syrian opposition leaders (abroad and at the grassroots) may try to reassure minorities and other "loyalists," they cannot guarantee that revenge killings will not occur on a much larger scale if Assad is toppled. [4]

Since late May, when news of the Houla massacre sent shock waves around the world, the violence has intensified and escalated at a steady pace. Syrian security forces, in addition to using tanks and artillery, are deploying helicopter gunships and airplanes–to strafe and bomb rebel-controlled neighborhoods and villages. This incessant bombardment is reducing residential neighborhoods to rubble. Now that the some rebel units have have better arms, they may have the ability (still very limited) to down planes and helicopters. [5]

The Alligator of civil war is eating Syria–ravenously– because President Assad is willing to do whatever it takes (bombing civilian neighborhoods, reducing its cities to piles of rubble) to remain in power. An elite army officer told Robert Fisk, "The Syrian regime will stay for ever. No power on earth can bring it down ...because God is on the side of those who are in the right" [6]. Assad himself has said, very clearly, that he’s is determined to fight on "whatever the price" [7]. And although Syria’s Deputy Prime Minister Qadri Jamil has created a bit of a stir by saying that Syria is willing to discuss Assad’s resignation–but only in the context of an overall agreement to end the violence, he probably doesn’t represent the view of of Assad’s innermost circle. [8].

Of course, Assad’s culpability does not absolve the rebels and those arming them–mostly the Saudis and Qataris--of a degree of responsibility for the suffering of Syrian civilians. Free Syrian Army activities draw the firepower of the security forces, resulting in "collateral damage" that erodes civilian support (how much varies). The Free Syrian Army has snipers too, who sometimes shoot civilians). And the rebels have have carried out targeting bombings, such as the spectacular one on July 18th, which killed four of Assad’s inner circle. [9] But the Syrian uprising did not begin with a burst of violence on the part of those protesting the Assad regime’s authoritarianism.

Who can doubt that it was Assad, the Lion, who unleashed this Alligator on his people. If, in March 2011, Assad had dealt with the first round of protests in Daraa with more restraint–if at that point he had taken steps to pursue the kind of substantive reforms that Syrians had been expecting since he took over from his father in 2000, he might have avoided much of the bloodshed of the last 17 months. If he hadn’t cracked down so hard on the grassroots activists who were organizing peaceful street demonstrations, he might have left a space open for dialogue with the Local Coordination Committees [10]. Instead, people began to demand more than political reform–they began to call for Assad to step down.
Stoically, for months the anti-Assad protesters endured arrests, detention, torture, and sniper fire, but then a few of them began to fight back–to defend themselves and their families. Back in July 2011, when ad hoc local militias and units of the Free Syria Army (FSA) were just beginning to form, skeptical reporters were inclined to suggest these were not real entities (at least, of any consequence). During the last few months, however, the FSA has gone on the offensive, taking and holding territory in the countryside, then moving on to fight in Damascus and Aleppo, but willing to make tactical retreats when necessary [11].
Amid all this conflict, for all these months, who has been Assad’s most stalwart friend? Russia, that still formidable Bear of the north, manifest as President Vladimir Putin, his Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergei Lavrov, and Russia’s ambassador to the UN, Vitaly Churkin. In the jargon of today’s social media junkies, Syria and Russia are "best friends forever" (or so it would seem, but perhaps only up to a point). Certainly, Russia has been a very good friend at the UN, using its veto-power to block three Security Council resolutions that would have imposed stricter sanctions and other measures tightening the screws on Assad.

Ordinary Russians aren’t all that interested (apparently) in events in Syria, but their government insists that it is acting in the best interests of the Syrian people. It would be unfair to assume that Russia’s stated concerns have no basis in the reality of what’s been happening in Syria during the last 18 months. Speaking at the APEC summit last week, Foreign Minister Lavrov stressed that Russia, like the West, wants more than just an end to the violence: "We want Syria to be a free, democratic, prosperous cuntry eld by a government elected by the people" [12]. 
Anyone who samples the opinions of Middle east experts and other analysts writing for Western-oriented media will soon discover views more or less on the same pages as those of Russian critics of intervention and militarization. Even the US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has repeated many times why the US has hesitated to intervene more directly–in terms that the Russian understand. [13].  
While I do think that Russians diplomats are genuinely concerned (as horrified by the carnage as the rest of us), from the point of view of the West, Turkey, and most Arab nations it is the Russians who have inhibited a more robust international response–a response that would hasten the toppling of the regime and thus an end to its brutality. From the point of view of those who’d like to see Assad to step down, Russia is one of the regime’s chief enablers because Russia’s diplomatic moves have provided Assad with much needed time to stamp out the insurgency–in ways that are cruel and deadly, with countless civilian casualties [14].
 
Does the resilience of Russia’s alliance with Syria mean that Russia is complicit in war crimes or crimes against humanity? Or is Russia’s stance merely a difference of opinion about how to stop the violence? Lavrov and other Russian diplomats have an answer to these questions. From their POV it is the West and the Gulf monarchies who are responsible for the militarization of the crisis because they have aided and abetted the insurgency by sending arms and paychecks to the rebels. Iran shares this view, but is decidedly more vehement in its condemnation of Saudia Arabia and Qatar. [15]  
Nevertheless, Russia could help to bring about a political transition in Syria in way that might redeem Putin’s reputation in the Middle East. Apart from Russia’s being an ally of the Syrian, what grounds are there for supposing that Russian diplomacy still has something positive to contribute to resolving the crisis? Could the Bear nudge the Lion just enough to get him to agree to step down? Russia could offer Assad and his extended family (plus a few select cronies) political asylum in Russia or help make arrangements to send him elsewhere. Russia could also mediate directly or indirectly to bring other parties together to devise a solution or to fix the mess created by the international community’s failures to act. [16]  
It will take more than "friendship" to convince Assad that he’d be better off stepping down and packing up. What gives Russia a great deal of clout in Damascus is an economic lever. The Syrian economy is in a shambles [17]. The economy is suffering not only from the bite of US and European sanctions, but from the disruption of business, commerce, and industry throughout the country. Economic dislocation is being felt to a much greater extent now that the civil war has reached Aleppo. In early August Syria’s Deputy Prime Minister went to Moscow, asking for a loan and an oil deal. Lacking its oil refineries, Assad’s capacity to keep fighting depends on imported fuel--diesel for tanks and aviation fuel for helicopters and jets. He negotiated a deal whereby Syria would obtain Russian refined fuel in exchange for the Syrian oil that Assad can’t peddle as a result of US/Western sanctions [18].
Needing wheat for bread, Syria is seeking to import 100,000 metric tons of it. Sanctions don’t apply to food, but prices are high on the world market (about 35% higher than last year) largely due to droughts in the Russian and American breadbaskets, which have reduced substantially the output per acre. Across northern Syria, where better than average rainfall has produced an abundance in fields and orchards, food shortages are much less acute. However, food can’t get to many large urban areas and, flat loaves being a staple of the diet, a scarcity of wheat could create havoc. [19]What I see in Syria’s putting out such a large tender for wheat is the government’s frank acknowledgment that severe shortages–crowds crying for bread even in loyalist neighborhoods--is a real threat. For Assad the dislocation of normal economic life in so much of the country is a real problem. Early on in the uprising Joshua Landis (an academic with a deep understanding of Syria) predicted that in the long-run a ruined economy would be Assad’s undoing [20].  

 
Russia’s Interests in Syria and the Middle East

Why is the Russian Bear so stubbornly committed to propping up the Syrian Lion? Why is Russia, after so much bloodshed, still obstructing the efforts of the US and its NATO allies (Britain, France, Germany, but also Turkey) to mitigate the violence and force Assad to relinquish his grip on Syria?
Ever since President Assad’s father Hafez Assad agreed to a formal alliance with the Soviet Union in 1980--when the Cold War was still raging and Russia and the US were competing superpowers--the two countries have supported each other diplomatically [21]. For the Russians to withdraw from such a long-standing alliance would test their sense of loyalty. Syria is Russia’s only remaining Arab ally: the Bear doesn’t want to throw the Lion to a flock of eagles (the US and NATO). Yet, the reasons for continuing the alliance are not primarily sentimental. Russian foreign policy inclines toward the pragmatic.
Russia’s interests in Syria and the Middle East fall into two sets. First, practical interest: its naval base at Tartus, profits from the arms trade, and anxiety over the spread of Islamic extremism in way that could destablize parts of the homeland and former Soviet republics. Secondly, larger concerns centered on sovereignty and President Putin’s desire to project Russian power internationally. (For an early, prescient analysis of the Russian reaction to the Syrian uprising and its anticipated impact on Russian interests see the Novaya Gazeta editorial in RESOURCES: Russian Interests and Diplomacy.)
TARTUS: Russia’s naval base at the Syrian port of TARTUS, its only base in the Mediterranean, is an important asset. Although the port’s facilities aren’t all that great, Russia needs them to service its navy. Tartus is strategically important because international agreements prevent Russia from moving its fleet rapidly from the Black Sea fleet into the Mediterranean. The Russians view their support of Assad as comparable to US support for Bahrain, where the US 5th Fleet resides. If the Assad regime falls, it seems more likely than not that a new Syrian government would expel the Russians from Tartus. In a fragmented situation the Russians could try to cut a deal with a willing to t faction willing to let them stay. [22]
 
In July a Russia flotilla heading for Tartus raised an alarm because it was rumored that it included amphibious vessels. Would the Russians go so far as to land a cohort of marines? The Russians claimed that they only wanted to protect their citizens and, if necessary, to evacuate them and retrieve some of their equipment. There are plenty of Russians in Syria (some married to Syrians) so this is not just an excuse. Of course it could also serve as a cover for a less benign purpose. [23]
ARMS TRADE: For decades Russia profited from supplying Syria with military hardware and aircraft. In June Secretary of State Hillary Clinton accused the Russians shipping helicopters to Syria, raising tensions between the US and Russia. When the Russians explained that they were only returning copters that Syria had sent to Russia as part of a maintenance agreement, the US accepted this explanation and the tiff blew over. Recently, the US has told Russia (again) that "We would like to see Russia firmly say that it is going to break with Assad in terms of its arms supplies." Lavrov responded by denying that Russia had signed any new contracts with Syria to supply arms or military equipment. [24]
For Russia, which has other customers (though losing Gaddafi’s contracts was a blow), it is not so much the profits from the arms trade that are at stake (though losing Gaddafi w, but the leverage that it provides. Quite self-righteously, Russia blames the West for militarizing the conflict–while mostly ignoring how the Assad regime’s firing on peaceful protesters provoked an armed opposition that turned into an insurrection and civil war. In any case, Russia may be continuing to arm Syria, despite its denials. The rebels claim that military hardware is arriving on civilian aircraft [25].
ANXIETY created by the Arab Spring is being felt at the highest echelons of the Russian government. In recent months there have been sporadic anti-Putin protests and Putin doesn’t want any spill-over to reach the homefront. But beyond this general nervousness Russia is worried about the impact of events in Syria on its own restless Muslim population of 20 million and those in the former Soviet republics in the Caucasus and Central Asia [26].  
Since early summer there have been frequent reports about the presence of foreign jihadis into Syria, making the Russians (but also Americans) more and more jittery. In July Russia anxiety was piqued when the son of a prominent Chechen separatist was killed in Syria while fighting with the rebels. Russian officials and the Russian-backed government in Chechnya claimed that there were few, if any, Chechen fighters, in Syria. Despite numerous sightings, there is no real sense of how many jihadis are taking part in the Syrian civil war. What is almost certainly happening, however, is a radicalization of the rebels themselves. [27].

Russia fears that if Assad goes, radical Islamists might prevail in the ensuing chaos. If a radical Islamist government were to take root in Syria, it might create an opening for Islamist militants seeking to undermine local governments in Chechnya and other Russian parts of the Caucasus region. This fear is partly a response to Saudi backing of Islamist dissidents in Chechnya–since the Saudis are also major supporters of the rebels in Syria. Some commentators, for example Edmund Burke, think that this anxiety was a major factor prompting Russia to call for a conference "to bring about a transition process that reverses Syria’s descent into chaos" [28]. The conference, held in Geneva on June 30th (see discussion in Part II), is still a touchstone of Russian foreign policy with respect to the Syrian conflict.

An ideal of national SOVEREIGNTY is at the core of Russian foreign policy towards Syria. Form the beginning what the Russians think the UN should or should not do has shaped their responses to other powers’ initiatives. They argue (as does China) that the UN charter provides no basis for intervening in any nation’s internal affairs. That the UN may act (indeed, should act) to protect the citizens of a country when their government refuses or is incapable of doing so is a recent idea, a legacy of former Secretary General Kofi Annan. Summed up as the phrase "responsibility to protect" (R2P) became an international guiding principle only after the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. However, it is an interpretation of the UN charter, not a principle in specified in the charter itself. [29]

The Russians don’ t want the US and its allies to intervene in Syria as they did in Libya. At the UN Ambassador Churkin has hauled out the national sovereignty principle to explain why Russia objects so strongly to any Security Council resolution that might that might provide a legal basis for any form of US or NATO military intervention (that is, any language invoking the Charter’s Chapter 7 provision). The UN resolution on Libya passed because both Russia and China agreed to abstain. But Russia views NATO’s Libyan intervention as a betrayal: President Putin told Kofi Annan, "We have been bitten by the West before, and we won’t let it happen again" [30]. China, nervous about the prospect of the Arab Spring sparking a Jasmine revolution at home, casts its vetoes alongside Russia for similar reasons.

That the Russians would put so much emphasis on national sovereignty is not very surprising given their efforts to contain dissidents in general, and Muslim militants in particular, within their own borders. If President Putin should find it necessary to crackdown harder, he doesn’t want his own actions subjected to a Security Council review. In the words of one of Russia’s own policy experts (Vladimir Frolov): "If we allow the U.N. and U.S. to put pressure on a regime–that is somewhat like ours–to cede power to the opposition, what kind of precedent could that create?" [31]. This points to the dominance of domestic affairs in the shaping Russia’s response to the crisis in Syria. POWER: Russia is a former superpower that wants to play a much larger role in today’s multipolar world. Syria is its foothold in a contentious region, but one that it might lose if Assad goes down. So President Putin’s goal is preserving for Russia an ability to shape the future of the Middle East in ways that will enhance Russian power. As Edward Burke sees it, "Russia has decided that the best option is to find a balance between the regime and the opposition that allows Moscow’s influence to endure" [32]. Recently, speaking to students of international relations, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained that Russia is increasing its influence because it is playing this "balancing" role so well–and that this reflects the extent to which Russian foreign policy is "free from ideological blinders that restrict the vision of our foreign partners" [33]. This insistence on geopolitcal balancing explains why, with respect to the Syrian crisis, Russia has been so consistently pursuing "mediation efforts" [34].
In other words, for Russia its policy towards Syria is way of asserting its role in the world, not simply in the region, because Lavrov is "acting on behalf of a Kremlin whose diplomatic relations are almost completely predicated on advancing Russian power" [35]. Washington Post reporter iz Sly agrees: "I think for Russia this is about much more than Assad, or bases on the Mediterranean or any of the practical issues that link it to Syria. It is about the balance of power and who calls the shots, in the region and in the world" [36].
Some would say it is all about Russian prestige but I’d call it ego. The Bear wants to show the world it can still throw its weight around. And it can. By practicing cunning diplomacy at the UN [37].
 
Part II will include these sections:
  • Recent Russian Diplomacy
  • How Russia’s Diplomacy Shapes US "Inaction"
  • Russia and New Diplomatic Initiatives
  • Russia’s Predicament
Plus, more ACTIVITIES and updated RESOURCES


ACTIVITIES
Here are a few suggestions to introduce the topic. More activities will be included in Part II.

SHOW Chris Riddell’s cartoon to get your students’ attention (URL:
Explain that "Assad" means "lion" and so we can use the "best friends" meme to think about Russia as a player in the Syrian conflict (now a civil war). ASK: Does the cartoonist think that Russia is really Syria’s friend? How is Russia befriending the regime of President Bashar al-Assad? What might the Russian Bear do if the Syrian Lion falls? Will the Lion and Bear be "best friends forever"? Perhaps the Bear will have to find some new friends but will those who opposed Assad want such a friend? Do the Syrian rebels have friends, too? Who are they? Follow-up with in-class reading appropriate to your subject and grade level (see RESOURCES: "Big Picture" OP-ED and Analysis; and RESOURCES: Russian Interests and Diplomacy).
GRAPHIC ORGANIZER: Use large, cartoon-style figures of a lion and a bear . Ask students to draw "spokes" that connect to balloons or text boxes. In each each balloon or box they should write a brief statements about one of the motives or political/ strategic interests of Assad (the Lion) or Putin (the Bear). Guide students to understand that, at the most basic level, both presidents are most concerned with staying in POWER. (To help students with this assignment, go to the RESOURCES sections and select whatever readings you find most suited to your class.)
READ/DISCUSS: Konstantin von Eggert, "Why Russia Is Standing by Syria’s Assad" is short enough for in-class reading and offers a clear explanation of "sovereignty" as it is understood by Russian leaders (esp. President Putin). How is the Russian notion of sovereignty different from that of countries (including the US)? Why do many leaders, diplomats, and pundits think that the Assad regime has lost its legitimacy? How would you weigh "sovereignty" (and what it implies) as a factor explaining Russia’s support for the Syrian regime? Is it a more important factor than Russia’s practical interests? WORLD HISTORY classes: note the references to NATO operations in the Balkans, the fall of Milosevic, the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine, and the 2011 intervention in Libya.
Send students to Google News to EXPLORE the topic or to major news web sites (BBC News, CNN, New York Times, The Guardian, and English-language Russian sites (see RESOURCES). Explain the importance of paying attention to differences in POV (point of view). Can they find two items with strongly contrasting POVs?
 
 
RESOURCES: REFERENCE AND BACKGROUND
Masters, Jonathan. "Syria's Crisis and the Global Response." Council on Foreign Relations (19 July 2012): http://www.cfr.org/syria/syrias-crisis-global-response/p28402

"The Story of the Conflict." BBC News (30 August 2012): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19331551
  • Seven Parts: Introduction (esp. chart of Fatalities), Protests, Bombardment, Refugees, Bombing, Masacres, World Reaction
Visual Resources
"Assad's Furry Friend: Chris Riddell on Russia's Embrace of the Syrian Despot." The Guardian (2 June 2012): http://www.guardian.co.uk/theobserver/cartoon/2012/jun/03/syria-russia?intcmp=23
 
Link to 15 photos of Ricardo Garcia Vilanova "Eyewitness Aleppo: ‘The City is Doomed’": http://cnnphotos.blogs.cnn.com/2012/08/24/eyewitness-aleppo-the-city-is-doomed/?show_story=true


Reports

UN Human Rights Council. "Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic." A/HRC/21/50 (16 August 2012):
  • PDF of 102-page report; coverage extends from beginning of the uprising through 20 July 2012.
"Syria: Government Attacking Bread Lines," Human Rights Watch (30 August 2012): http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/08/30/syria-government-attacking-bread-lines
  • VIDEO (2:25 mins.): Ole Solvang reports, with graphic footage (preview before showing in class); at end of video, access to 12 more videos (all but one on Syria)
  • VIDEO (3:55): "Syria’s Torture Centers" (link on this page)
RESOURCES: KEEPING UP WITH EVENTS IN SYRIA
Site with special pages--with many, up-dated links–to both news, opinion, photo and/or video coverage from BBC News, CNN, Christian Science Monitor, The Guardian, Al Jazeera. 
Syria Comment:  http://joshualandis.com
News from Russian Sources
Russia: Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Twitter: https://twitter.com/MFA_Russia/statuses/237940111843667968

RIA Novosti: http://en.rian.ru/ RT: http://rt.com/tags/syria/
  • Archive of 33 pages, going back to May 2011
  • Non-profit/government-funded TV network, aspiring to be Russia’s BBC; braodcasts in Russian, English, Spanish, and Arabic
  • For a concise overview its alleged pro-Kremlin bias see Wikipedia: http://en.wikipedia.org/w/index/php?title=RT_(TV_network)&oldid=510146914
Voice of Russia: http://english.ruvr.ru/search.html?q=syria
  • Available in 33 languages (great resource for foreign language teachers)
  • Search "syria" to bring up nearly 5,000 items
Moscow Times: http://www.themoscowtimes.com/search/index.php?q=syria&s=Search
  • Search "syria" brings up a week’s worth of articles, but mostly "What the Papers Say" for each day (summaries of news articles from Russian-language papers, providing a sense of their coverage of events in Syria or related to the Syrian crisis)
  • From search results, change the time range or search the full archive
  • Re-posts from Reuters and BBC Monitoring (so look for original Moscow Times items or those from other Russian publications)
Novaya Gazeta: http://en.novayagazeta.ru　
Pravda: http://english.pravda.ru
  • No search capacity; slim coverage of Middle East (but note important item below, August 28)

News: August 12-18

"Syria: Damning UN Verdict Amid Further Deaths." Sky News (15 August 2012): http://news.sky.com/story/972681/syria-damning-un-verdict-amid-further-deaths

  • VIDEO (01:28): Syria: Azaz Air Strike ‘Kills 30'
  • VIDEO (01:40): Rebels Battle Military for Damascus (Tim Marshall reports: Damascus on 27th day of Ramadan--21 explosions in half hour)
  • Click on "findings" to download UN Human Rights Council report in MS word format

"Syria Crisis: Blast Near Damascus Military Compound." BBC News (15 August 2012): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19265178
  • See "In Pictures: Damascus Blast" and graphic feature with three views: Damascus, Aleppo, Refugee Camps; scroll down for "More" [many links]

Aji, Albert and Bassem Mroue. "Explosion Hits Near Damascus Hotel Used by UN: State TV." Globe and Mail/AP (15 August 2012): http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/firefight-erupts-near-prime-ministers-office-in-damascus/article4481963


News: August 19-24

Evans, Dominic. "Growing Violence Could Leave Syria Ungovernable." Reuters (19 August 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/19/us-syria-crisis-violence-idUSBRE87I03T20120819.

"Syria Regime Forces Blitz Key Battlegrounds." Gulf News (21 August 2012): http://gulfnews.com/in-focus/syria/syria-regime-forces-blitz-key-battlegrounds-1.1064354

Chivers, C. J. "Life With Syria’s Rebels in a Cold and Cunning War." New York Times (20/21August 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/21/world/middleeast/syrian-rebels-coalesce-into-a-fighting-force.html?ref=middleeast
  • See SL: With the Rebels in the Battle for Aleppo
Evans, Dominic. Russia warns West over Syria after Obama threats." Reuters (21 August 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/21/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8610SH20120821?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews&rpc=71

Grove, Thomas. "Syria Says Preparing to Finalize Oil Deal with Russia." Reuters (21 August 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/21/us-russia-syria-oil-idUSBRE87K0U620120821

Fisk, Robert. "'No Power Can Bring down the Syrian Regime.'" The Independent (22 August 2012): http://www.independent.co.uk/opinion/commentators/fisk/robert-fisk-no-power-can-bring-down-the-syrian-regime-8070029.html

Gladstone, Rich and Shreeya Sinha. Britain and France Join the U.S. in Warning Syria About Military Action." New York Times (23 August 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/24/world/middleeast/syrian-forces-renew-raids-on-damascus-suburbs.html?ref=middleeast


News: August 25-September 1

"Evidence Is Mounting of a New Massacre in Syria, with at Least 320 Killed in Past Several Days." Washington Post/AP (26 August 2012): http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/more-than-30-civilians-found-dead-in-streets-of-syrian-town-of-daraya-toll-for-week-above-120/2012/08/26/25924f18-ef63-11e1-b74c-84ed55e0300b_story.html

Holmes, Oliver. "Assad’s Forces Accused of Massacre Near Syrian Capital." Reuters (26 August 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/26/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8610SH20120826

Sly, Liz. "Sharp Increase in Refugee Flows from Syria." Washington Post (26 August 2012): http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/sharp-increase-in-refugee-flows-from-syria/2012/08/26/939c19ee-efb8-11e1-892d-bc92fee603a7_story.html
    
Pesov, Eduard and Olga Samofálova. "‘Intervention in Syria Is a catastrophe,’ Says Lavrov." Pravda (28 August 2012): http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/conflicts/28-08-2012/121997-intervention_syria-0/

"Assad Says Syrian Regime Needs Time to Win Civil War, Acknowledging Struggle to Defeat Rebels." Washington Post (29 August 2012): http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/assad-says-syria-is-facing-regional-global-battle-that-will-take-time-to-win/2012/08/29/33b32b82-f1aa-11e1-b74c-84ed55e0300b_story.html

George, Marcus. "Iran seeks support for Syria ceasefire plan at Tehran summit." Reuters (29 August 2012): http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/29/syria-crisis-iran-idINL6E8JT5MH20120829

Myers, Steven Lee. "Syrian Émigrés Seek Aid in U.S. to Arm Rebels." New York Times (29 August 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/30/world/middleeast/syrian-group-in-united-states-seeks-to-arm-rebels-against-assad.html?_r=1&pagewanted=all

Besheer, Margaret. "Syria’s Neighbors: Refugee Crisis Unsustainable." Voice of America (30 August 2012): http://www.voanews.com/content/syria-refugees-un/1499050.html

Erdbrink, Thomas and Rick Gladstone. "Summit Meeting in Iran Disrupted by Rebukes of Syria." New York Times (30 August 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/31/world/middleeast/ban-ki-moon-broaches-delicate-topics-with-iranian-officials.html?_r=1

"'Difficult' Demand for Refugee Camps in Syria Vexes Un." BBC News (30 August 2012): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19430757

"Egyptian Attack on ‘Oppresive’ Syria Sparks Walkout." BBC News (30 August 2012): http://bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19418556

Mroue, Bassem. "Syrian Rebels Launch New Operation in Aleppo." Google/AP (31 August 2012): http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gEtJt1yhFeeIf-Aimq5avt5XVtjA?docId=1c2b925b026642b3b059d50e4ffa5b61
 
Peter, Tom A. "In Rebel-held 'Free Syria,' Regime Planes Still Terrorize." Christian Science Monitor (31 August 2012): http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0831/In-rebel-held-Free-Syria-regime-planes-still-terrorize

Kirkpatrick, David D. "Airstrikes Push Waves of Syrians to Jordan Camps." New York Times (1 September 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/02/world/middleeast/airstrikes-push-syrians-to-refugee-camps-in-jordan.html?ref=middleeast


News: September 2-8

Saloomey, Kristen. "UN Diplomacy in Syria: Take Two." Al Jazeera (2 September 2012): http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/middle-east/un-diplomacy-syria-take-two

  • VIDEO (7:24 mins.) of Kristen Saloomey’s interview with Lakhdar Brahimi

Gordon, Michael R. "Iran Supplying Syrian Military via Iraqi Airspace." New York Times (4 September 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/world/middleeast/iran-supplying-syrian-military-via-iraq-airspace.html?_r=1&hp

Kirkpatrick, David D. And Hwaida Saad. "United Nations Says 100,000 Refugees Fled Syria in August." New York Times (4 September 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/world/middleeast/syria.html?ref=middleeast

Kirkpatrick, David D. "Egyptian President Warns Assad That ‘Your Time Won’t Be Long." New York Times (5 September 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/06/world/middleeast/egypts-morsi-warns-assad-your-time-wont-be-long.html

"AP Interview: McCain Blasts Obama on Mideast, Chides Romney for Sidestepping World Affairs." Washington Post/AP (8 September 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/08/us-eu-syria-idUSBRE8870AU20120908

Irish, John. "Jihadists Join Aleppo Fight, Eye Islamic State, Surgeon Says." Reuters (8 September 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/09/08/us-syria-crisis-jihad-idUSBRE88708W20120908


News: September 9-15

Cumming-Bruce, Nick and Neil MacFarquhar. "Relief Crisis Grows as Refugees Stream Out of Syria." New York Times (11 September 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/12/world/middleeast/relief-crisis-grows-as-refugees-stream-out-of-syria.html

Evans, Dominic. "Syria’s Christians Fear Violent Backlash from Anti-assad Uprising." Reuters (12 September 2012): http://blogs.reuters.com/faithworld/2012/09/12/syrias-christians-fear-violent-backlash-from-anti-assad-uprising

Fahim, Kareem. "New International Envoy, Meeting With Syrian President, Says Crisis Is Worsening." New York Times (15/16 September 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/16/world/middleeast/Syria.html?ref=todayspaper


News: September 16-22

"Syria Accuses Turkey of Allowing Al-Qaida members to Cross into Its Territory." Washington Post/AP (16 September 2012): http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/state-media-says-syrian-troops-have-captured-rebel-held-neighborhood-in-aleppo/2012/09/16/53d63964-ffff-11e1-bbf0-e33b4ee2f0e8_story.html

Black, Ian. "Iran Confirms it Has Forces in Syria and Will Take Military Action If Pushed." Guardian (16 September 2012): http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/sep/16/iran-middleeast

Enders, David. "In Syria’s Largest City, Rebellion Takes on an Overtly Religious Tone." Kansas City Star/McClatchy (16 September 2012): http://www.kansascity.com/2012/09/16/3818202/in-syrias-largest-city-rebellion.html#storylink=cpy

"UN Rights Panel: Violations in Syria Growing." VOA News (17 September 2012): http://www.voanews.com/content/un_rights_panel_violations_in_syria_growing/1509286.html

NYT employee in Syria and Kareem Fahim. "Syria Orders Schools to Open, but Classes Give Way to War." New York Times (18 September 20120: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/19/world/middleeast/syria-orders-schools-to-open-but-classes-give-way-to-war.html?ref=todayspaper


News: September 23-29

Employee of the NYT and Kareem Fahim. "Opponents in Capital Seek Ouster of Assad." New York Times (23/24 September 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/24/world/middleeast/in-damascus-assad-foes-seek-his-peaceful-ouster.html?ref=middleeast

Employee of NYT in Syria and Steven Lee Myers. "Blasts Hit Syrian School as War Is Focus at the U.N.." New York Times (25/26 September 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/world/middleeast/Syria.html?
 
"Big Picture" OP-ED and Analysis
Slim, Randa. "Vetoes Leave Syria Headed for a Bloody Stalemate." CNN (5 February 2012): http://www.cnn.com/2012/02/05/opinion/slim-syria-veto

Lynch, Colum. "Russia, China Veto U.N. Action on Syria ... and the Blame Game Begins." Turtle Bay: The Economist (4 February 2012):
http://turtlebay.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/02/04/russia_china_veto_un_action_on_syria_and_the_blame_game_begins

Luers, William H. (interviewed by Bernard Gwertzman). "The UN’s Mideast Struggles." Council on Foreign Relations (14 February 2012):
http://www.cfr.org/un/uns-mideast-struggles/p27362

Slavin, Barbara. "US Exclusion of Iran on Syria Threatens Syria, Nuclear Talks." Al Monitor (13 June 2012): http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/us-exclusion-of-iran-on-syria-th.html

Salem, Paul. "Syrian Regime Grows Desperate as Regions Slip from Its Control." Al Monitor (14 June 2012): http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/06/syrian-regime-facing-final-phase.html

Nocetti, Julien. "Russia's Bear's Grip Falters." Haaretz (29 June 2012):
http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/russia-s-bear-s-grip-falters.premium-1.444819
Nye, Joseph S. "The Intervention Dilemma in Syria." Gulf News (18 June 2012): http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/the-intervention-dilemma-in-syria-1.1036951

  • Broad overview of risks of intervention, arguing that Russia is justified in raising as basis for restraint–though Russia has its own motives
  • WH teachers: note tie-ins to Ted Roosevelt/Cuba as well as post-Cold War and Rwanda
 
Bennis, Phyllis. "Syria: Only Diplomacy Can Stop the War." Al Jazeera (26 June 2012): http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/06/201262475838515783.html

"The Lessons of Failure in Syria." Washington Post (2 August 2012):

"Syria on the Brink of Liberty." Editorial. Christian Science Monitor (18 July 2012) http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2012/0718/Syria-on-the-brink-of-liberty

Cohen, Richard. "In Syria, It’s Past Time for the United States to Act." Washington Post (13 August 2012): http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/in-syria-its-past-time-for-the-united-states-to-act/2012/08/13/fec1bcce-e57c-11e1-8f62-58260e3940a0_story.html?wpisrc=nl_opinions

Lynch, Colum. "Syrian Shadow Boxing." Foreign Policy (3 August 2012): http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/08/03/syrian_shadow_boxing
  • Excellent introduction to recent diplomacy (featured in Activities section above)
McCain, John, Joseph I. Lieberman, and Lindsey O. Graham. "The Risks of Inaction in Syria." Washington Post (5 August 2012): http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/mccain-lieberman-and-graham-the-risks-of-inaction-in-syria/2012/08/05/4a63585c-dd91-11e1-8e43-4a3c4375504a_story.html

Miller, Aaron David. "The Winners and Losers of Syria’s Civil War." Foreign Policy (8 August 2012): http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/08/08/winners_and_losers_of_syrias_civil_war

Evans, Dominic. "Growing violence could leave Syria ungovernable." Reuters (19 August 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/19/us-syria-crisis-violence-idUSBRE87I03T20120819

Myers, Steven Lee and Scott Shane. "Risks of Syrian Intervention Limit Options for U.S." New York Times (21 August 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/22/world/middleeast/risks-of-syrian-intervention-limit-options-for-us.html?ref=todayspaper

Abdulhamid, Ammar. "Of Moral Culpability and Nightmares." Syrian Revolution Digest (26 August 2012): http://syrianrevolutiondigest.com
Moallem: US Major Player in Syria Crisis, Other Countries Instruments." Al-Manar (28 August 2012): http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=66491&frid=23&cid=23&fromval=1&seccatid=20
  • Based mostly on interview that Syrian foreign minister gave to Independent reporter
Gerges, Fawaz A. "Viewpoint: Syria Set for Drawn-out Conflict." BBC News (29 August 2012): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19414144

"Assad from Presidential Palace: Syria Fighting Regional, Int’l Battle." Al-Manar (30 August 2012): http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=66730&frid=23&cid=23&fromval=1&seccatid=20
  • Assad’s view of the "big picture" 

Al-Rashed, Abdul Rahman. "The American Failure to Intervene in Syria." Al Arabiya (30 August 2012):
http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2012/08/30/235125.html
Ignatius, David. "Syria’s eerie parallel to 1980s Afghanistan." Washington Post (5 September 2012): http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/david-ignatius-syrias-eerie-parallel-to-1980s-afghanistan/2012/09/05/90652434-f781-11e1-8398-0327ab83ab91_story.html?wpisrc=nl_opinions


RESOURCES: Russian Interests and Diplomacy

"The Syrian Cataclysm or the End of Soviety-Style Policy in the Middle East." Novaya Gazeta (29 April 2011): http://en.novayagazeta.ru/politics/8679.html
  • Prescient analysis that compares Russian and Western thinking about the Syrian uprising only six weeks after its inception–when Dmityr Medvedev was still President of Russia; right from beginning Russians were worried about the impact on their interests (including the toll of sanctions on Russian companies
"Libyan Scenario in Syria Unacceptable – Russian President." RT (9/updated 14 September 2011): http://rt.com/politics/official-word/medvedev-uronews-interview-ukraine-159/
  • VIDEO (6:39 mins.): interview with Medvedev, responding on several subjects (Syria taken up at end); English voice-over translation; article is a transcript

"Moral Rhetoric Masks Western Self-Interest." RT (5 September 2011): http://rt.com/news/syria-west-intervention-nato/

"Syria Hotbed of Major Geopolitical Game." RT (5 October 2011): http://rt.com/news/syria-resolution-geopolitcal-game-115/

"Moscow's Shift on Syria." Al Jazeera (18 December 2011): www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidestory/2011/12/2011121794848611717.html

 
"Russia Must Rethink What Syria Protests Mean." Christian Science Monitor (2 February 2012): http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/the-monitors-view/2012/0202/Russia-must-rethink-what-Syria-protests-mean

Lynch, Colum. "Russia, China Veto U.N. Action on Syria ... and the Blame Game Begins." Turtle Bay [blog]: The Economist (4 February 2012):
http://turtlebay.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2012/02/04/russia_china_veto_un_action_on_syria_and_the_blame_game_begins

Moubayed, Sami. "Will There Be a Kremlin U-Turn on Syria?" Mideast Views (6 March 2012): http://www.mideastviews.com/articleview.php?art=565 (Firt published in Asian Times.)

Lou, Y. K. "How Russia has Been Hedging Its Bets on Syria." Huffington Post (25 April 2012): http://www.huffingtonpost.com/lou-yk/syria-russia-un_b_1452631.html

Ignatius, David. "Syria: The Blood of Future Massacres Is on Russia's Hands." Washington Post (29 May 2012): http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/post/syria-the-blood-of-future-massacres-is-on-russias-hands/2012/05/29/gJQAPrWB0U_blog.html?wpisrc=nl_opinions_Wed

Yacoubian, Mona. Interviewed by Bernard Gwertzman. "A Syrian Turning Point for Russia?" Council on Foreign Relations (29 May 2012): http://www.cfr.org/syria/syrian-turning-point-russia/p28388
 
Gutterman Steve. "Houla Massacre: Russia’s Tipping Point on Syria?" Huffington Post/Reuters (30/31 May 2012): http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/30/houla-massacre-russias-ti_n_1556394.html?view=print&comm_ref=false

"Assad's Furry Friend: Chris Riddell on Russia's Embrace of the Syrian Despot." The Guardian (2 June 2012): http://www.guardian.co.uk/theobserver/cartoon/2012/jun/03/syria-russia?intcmp=239
  • Cartoon (use in PowerPoint or directly from web)--with 193 comments

"When Will Russia Change its Stance on Syria?" Al Jazeera (3 June 2012): http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/insidesyria/2012/06/20126382342333369.html

Gowan, Richard. "Why Russia Has Assad’s Back.’ New York Daily News (10 June 2012): http://www.nydailynews.com/opinion/russia-assad-back-article-1.1092376

"The Market for Russia’s Weapons." Editorial. Los Angeles Times (10 June 2012).

Burke, Edmund. International Herald Tribune/New York Times (11 June 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/12/opinion/let-russia-show-the-way-on-syria.html?_r=1

Philips, Alan. "Moscow and Washington Defy Logic in Spat Over Syria." The National [United Arab Emirates] (15 June 2012): http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/comment/moscow-and-washington-defy-logic-in-spat-over-syria

Von Eggert, Konstantin. "Why Russia Is Standing by Syria’s Assad." BBC News (15 June 2012): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18462813

Karon, Tony. "Can the U.S. and Russia Agree on How to End Syria’s War?." TIME (27 June 2012): http://world.time.com/2012/06/27/can-the-u-s-and-russia-agree-on-how-to-end-syrias-war/

Annan, Kofi. "Forging a Peace Plan for Syria." Washington Post (28 June 2012):http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/kofi-annan-forging-a-peace-plan-for-syria/2012/06/28/gJQAEtU19V_story.html?wpisrc=nl_opinions

Nocetti, Julien. "Russia's Bear's Grip Falters." Haaretz (29 June 2012): http://www.haaretz.com/opinion/russia-s-bear-s-grip-falters.premium-1.444819

Barry, Ellen. "Russians and Syrians, Allied by History and Related by Marriage." New York Times (1 July 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/02/world/middleeast/for-russia-syrian-ties-complicated-by-marriage.html?ref=todayspaper

"Syria and the Russia Connection." Editorial. Los Angeles Times (3 July 2012): http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/editorials/la-ed-syria-20120703,0,4881988.sto

Kohen, Sami. "Merkel To Putin: ‘Take Assad to Russia.’" Al Monitor (9 July 2012): http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/07/he-will-be-deposed-but-when.html

Mawad, Dalal and Rick Gladstone. "Russia Prods Syria’s President Assad with Message of Growing Impatience." New York Times (9 July 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/10/world/middleeast/bashar-al-assad-meets-with-kofi-annan.html

Katz, Mark. "Moscow’s Marine Head for Syria." Foreign Policy (10 July 2012): http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2012/07/10/moscows_marines_head_for_syria

Syria's Opposition Appeals for Russian Support." BBC News (11 July 2012): http://www.bbc.co.uk/new/world-middle-east-18793760
 
Seddon, Max. "The Dying Russian Bear Strikes Again." Reuters (18 July 2012): http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2012/07/18/the-dying-russian-bear-strikes-again/

"Russia Cautious about New Syria Resolution." Al Jazeera (20 July 2012): www.aljazeera.com/video/europe/2012/02/201221716011721803.html

Mudallali, Amal. "Russia's Fear of Radical Islam Drives Its Support for Assad." Al Monitor (27 July 2012): http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2012/al-monitor/russias-muslim-problem-is-preven.html
Nemtsova, Anna. "Russia’s Support for Syria Costs It Friends and Money in the Middle East." The Daily Beast (2 August 2012): http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/08/02/russia-s-support-for-syria-costs-it-friends-and-money-in-the-middle-east.html
 
"Russia Denies Warships Heading for Syria's Tartus Port." BBC News (3 August 2012): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-19108141

"U.N. Nations Condemn Syria; Russia, China Seen Isolated." Reuters (3 August 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/03/us-syria-crisis-un-idUSBRE8720ZN20120803

"Russia Blames US for Annan Resignation as Envoy for Syria Crisis." Press TV (3 August 2012): http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/08/03/254177/russia-blames-us-for-annan-resignation/
  • VID (1:18): statement by Vitaly Churkin
Kudashkina, Yekaterina and Yuri Tavrovsky. "Syria–A Key to the Region." Burning Point: The Voice of Russia (6 August 2012): http://english/ruvr.ru/_print/84185266.html
 
Salhani, Claude. "Does Russia Hold the Key to the Syrian Crisis?" Huffington Post (9 August 2012): http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-johansen/un-security-council-syria_b_1848194.html

"US and Turkey to Consider No-fly Zones for Syria." RT (11 August 2012): http://rt.com/news/clinton-turkey-syria-damascus-aleppo-437/

"Moscow Expresses Concern as UN Mission in Syria Ends." RT (17 August 2012): http://rt.com/politics/russia-syria-un-crisis-mission-946/

"Moscow Warns Against ‘Burying’ Geneva Agreements on Syria." RIA Novosti (17 August 2012): http://en.ria.ru/russia/20120817/175282210.html
  • Links to 5 related articles and several multimedia features

"Military Intervention in Syria Will Lead to Catastrophe–Lavrov." RT (18 August 2012): http://rt.com/news/lavrov-military-intervention-syria-006

Kudashkina, Yekaterina. "Geidar Dzhemal: ‘Now It’s Syria and Tomorrow Will Be Saudi Arabia.’" Voice of Russia (18 August 2012); http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_08_18/Geidar-Dzhemal-Now-its-Syria-and-tomorrow-will-be-Saudi-Arabia/
  • For the POV of the chairman of Russia’s Islamic Committee

Lyubova, Julia (reporting from Moscow). "Syrian Delegation Goes to Moscow to Call for Help." Press TV [Iran] (18 August 2012): http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2012/08/19/257015/syrian-delegation-moscow/
  • VIDEO (2:55): for statement by Ali Haidar, Syrian National Reconciliation Minister
"Syrian Outcome Will Affect Future Conflicts' Settlements – Lavrov." RT (21 August 2012): http://rt.com/news/lavrov-syria-future-conflicts-162/
 
"Russia Warns West on Syria After Obama Threats." Moscow Times (22 August 2012): http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russia-warns-west-on-syria-after-obama-threats/466921.html#ixzz25FKdQBoB

"Turkey Seeks Russian, Iranian Help in Syrian Crisis." Day Press (29 August 2012): http://www.dp-news.com/en/detail.aspx?articleid=129617

Fernandez, Yusuf. "Is the Syrian Crisis a Proxy War against Russia?" Al-Manar (30 August 2012): http://www.almanar.com.lb/english/adetails.php?eid=66791&frid=22&seccatid=45&cid=22&fromval=1
  • Although Al-Manar is a mouthpiece for Hezbollah, this essay contains detailed info (despite its being an op-ed item)
"Lavrov Addresses Moscow students on Syria." Voice of Russia (1 September 2012): http://english.ruvr.ru/2012_09_01/Lavrov-addresses-Moscow-students-on-Syria/

"Russia 'to Push Syria Peace Accord at UN.'" RIA Novosti (8 September 2012): http://en.ria.ru/politics/20120908/175840330.html

"Listen to Russia’s Peace Plan." Editorial. Khaleej Times (9 September 2012): http://www.khaleejtimes.com/kt-article-display-1.asp?xfile=/data/editorial/2012/September/editorial_September18.xml&section=editorial

"Moscow Disagrees with UN Ban’s Remark on Security Council Role in Settling Syria Crisis." Russia Beyond the Headlines/Interfax (9 September 2012): http://rbth.ru/articles/2012/09/09/moscow_disagrees_with_un_bans_remark_on_security_council_role_in_set_18085.html

NOTES

1) Oliver Holmes, "Assad’s Forces Accused of Massacre Near Syrian Capital," Reuters (26 August 2012); Death toll reported by the Syrian Observatory (widely reported, but see GN 8-21; also Evans 8-19–figure includes soldiers and defectors]; UN number is usually somewhat lower ( 20,000). Internal humanitarian crisis, see "Syria: Scrambling to Respond to Fast-growing Needs," International Committee of the Red Cross (31 August 2012): http://www.icrc.org/eng/resources/documents/update/2012/syria-update-2012-08-31.htm. Refugee statistics, see graphic in "Syria Crisis: Blast Near Damascus Military Compound." BBC News (15 August 2012); For refugee and internally-displaced stats (UN sources) see Margaret Besheer, "Syria’s Neighbors: Refugee Crisis Unsustainable," Voice of America (30 August 2012); also Liz Sly, "Sharp Increase in Refugee Flows from Syria," Washington Post (26 August 2012). r how government bombing is driving people out of Daraa province, see David D. Kirkpatrick, "Airstrikes Push Waves of Syrians to Jordan Camps." New York Times (1 September 2012). Including the estimated number of unregistered refugees the total probably exceeds 300,000. David Kirkpatrick and Hwaida Saad, "United Nations Says 100,000 Refugees Fled Syria in August," New York Times (4 September 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/05/world/middleeast/syria.html?ref=middleeast.

2) UN Human Rights Council, "Report of the Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Syrian Arab Republic." A/HRC/21/50 (16 August 2012); link to report also from "Syria: Damning UN Verdict Amid Further Deaths," Sky News (15 August 2012). http://news.sky.com/story/972681/syria-damning-un-verdict-amid-further-deaths. "Houla Massacre: UN Blames Syria Troops and Militia," BBC News (15 August 2012): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19273284. See also "Syria Crisis: Blast Near Damascus Military Compound." BBC News (15 August 2012); and Albert Aji and Bassem Mroue, "Explosion Hits Near Damascus Hotel Used by UN: State TV," Globe and Mail/AP (15 August 2012). "Syria: Government Attacking Bread Lines," Human Rights Watch (30 August 2012).

3) "Exclusive: Syria Now an ‘Internal Armed Conflict" - Red Cross," Reuters (14 July 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/14/us-syria-crisis-icrc-idUSBRE86D09H20120714; Neil MacFarquhar, "Syria Denies Attack on Civilians, in Crisis Seen as Civil War." New York Times (14/15 July 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/16/world/middleeast/syria-denies-use-of-heavy-weapons-in-deadly-village-fight.html. Khaled Yacoub Oweis and Oliver Holmes. "Warplane Attacks on Damascus Suburbs Kill 60: Activists," Reuters (27 August 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/27/us-syria-crisis-idUSBRE8610SH20120827

4) Kapil Komireddi, "Syria’s Crumbling Pluralism: Civil Disintegration and Ethnic Cleansing," New York Times (3 August 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/04/opinion/syrias-crumbling-pluralism.html. Dominic Evans, "Syria’s Christians Fear Violent Backlash from Anti-assad Uprising." Reuters (12 September 2012); and "Growing Violence Could Leave Syria Ungovernable." Reuters (19 August 2012). David Enders, "In Syria’s Largest City, Rebellion Takes on an Overtly Religious Tone," Kansas City Star/McClatchy (16 September 2012): http://www.kansascity.com/2012/09/16/3818202/in-syrias-largest-city-rebellion.html#storylink=cpy
5) For verbatim testimony (primary sources) see "Syria: UN Inquiry Should Investigate Houla Killings," Human Rights Watch (25 May 2012): http://www.hrw.org/news/2012/05/27/syria-un-inquiry-should-investigate-houla-killings. For the potential of visual primary sources see Frank Gardner, "Satellite Image Clues to Houla Massacre in Syria," BBC News (31 May 2012): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18274542. Also Khaled Yacoub Oweis, "Families Herded ‘Like Sheep’ to Die in Houla Massacre," Reuters (30 May 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/05/30/us-syria-crisis-houla-idUSBRE84T1BH20120530
Photos and video clips of the rubble are abundant but see this description of Al Baz, just outside Aleppo: Robert Fisk, "'No Power Can Bring down the Syrian Regime.'" The Independent (22 August 2012).

6) Robert Fisk (see note 5).

7) "Assad Says Syrian Regime Needs Time to Win Civil War, Acknowledging Struggle to Defeat Rebels," Washington Post/AP (29 August 2012).

8) That the Chinese would grant Jamil a degree of credibility is suggested by an editorial, "Syrian Crisis Hits Impasse," China Daily Europe (27 August 2012): http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2012-08/27/content_15710413.htm. This makes me wonder whether Jamil,while in Beijing, was trying to work out some sort of agreement.

9) Robert Fisk, "Aleppo's Poor Get Caught in the Crossfire of Syria's Civil War," The Independent (24 August 2012): http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/robert-fisk-aleppos-poor-get-caught-in-the-crossfire-of-syrias-civil-war-8076945.html. Neil MacFaquhar, "Syrian Rebels Land Deadly Blow to Assad’s Inner Circle," New York Times (18 July 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/19/world/middleeast/suicide-attack-reported-in-damascus-as-more-generals-flee.html?_r=1&ref=opinion (links to slideshow and video).

10) The Local Coordinating Committees were behind many of the early, peaceful demonstrations and they are still the backbone of the political resistance inside Syria–though their activities are now greatly curtailed by the violence. They are not at all well aligned with the external Syrian National Council.

11) Andrew Osborn, "How ‘Damacus Volcano’ Erupted in Assad’s Stronghold," Reuters (20 July 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/07/20/us-syria-crisis-russia-idUSBRE86J0B22012072. Ghaith Abdul-Ahad, "Inside Syria: rebels and regime trapped in cycle of destruction," The Guardian (24 July 2012): http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/jul/24/inside-syria-rebels-regime-destruction?intcmp=239.   "Rebels Getting More Experienced," Gulf News/AP (3 August 2012): http://gulfnews.com/news/region/syria/rebels-getting-more-experienced-1.1056782. On the spot reporting by C. J. Chivers, "Life With Syria’s Rebels in a Cold and Cunning War," New York Times (20 August 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/21/world/middleeast/syrian-rebels-coalesce-into-a-fighting-force.html?ref=middleeast; "Many Hands Patch Together Syrian Rebels’ Arsenal." (28 August 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/29/world/middleeast/syrian-rebels-get-arms-from-a-diverse-network-of-sources.html?_r=1&hp; and "In the Syrian Fight, Rebels’ Prospects Can Change With the Weather,"  At War Blog: New York Times (29 August 2012):http://atwar.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/29/in-the-syrian-fight-rebels-prospects-can-change-with-the-weather/?ref=middleeast

12) "Russia 'to Push Syria Peace Accord at UN,'" RIA Novosti (8 September 2012).

13) Joseph S. Nye, "The Intervention Dilemma in Syria," Gulf News (18 June 2012): http://gulfnews.com/opinions/columnists/the-intervention-dilemma-in-syria cautionary . Phyllis Bennis, "Syria: Only Diplomacy Can Stop the War," Al Jazeera (26 June 2012): http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2012/06/201262475838515783.html. Steven Lee Myers and Scott Shane, "Risks of Syrian Intervention Limit Options for U.S." New York Times (21 August 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/22/world/middleeast/risks-of-syrian-intervention-limit-options-for-us.html?ref=todayspaper.
David D. Kirkpatrick, "Concerns About Al Qaeda in Syria Underscore Questions About Rebels," The Lede: New York Times (21 August 2012): http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/21/concerns-about-al-qaeda-in-syria-underscore-questions-about-rebels/?ref=middleeast

14) Gerges, Fawaz A. "Viewpoint: Syria Set for Drawn-out Conflict." BBC News (29 August 2012): http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-19414144

15) See James S. Dorsey, "Syria: When Does Inaction Become Complicity?" Al Arabiya (June 15, 2011). For the Russian view: "Moral Rhetoric Masks Western Self-Interest." RT (5 September 2011): http://rt.com/news/syria-west-intervention-nato/

16) Sami Kohen, "Merkel To Putin: ‘Take Assad to Russia,’" Al Monitor (9 July 2012): http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/politics/2012/07/he-will-be-deposed-but-when.html

17) Ibrahim Saif, "Syrian Regime Cannot Conceal an Economy in Rapid Decline," carnegie Endowment for International Peace/Al-Monitor (22 May 2012): http://carnegieendowment.org/2012/05/22/syrian-regime-cannot-conceal-economy-in-rapid-decline/aw1j. Over the summer the destruction of economic infrastructure has been almost unfathomable. For economic perspectives over the course of the uprising go to more go to Syria Comment and click on "Economics" category.

18) "Syria Reaches Oil Deal with Ally Russia," Reuters (3 August 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/03/us-russia-syria-oil-idUSBRE8720WC20120803; Thomas Grove, "Syria Says Preparing to Finalize Oil Deal with Russia." Reuters (21 August 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/21/us-russia-syria-oil-idUSBRE87K0U620120821. Iran, another possible source of fuel, is hobbled by sanctions and its own limited refinery capacity.

19) Michael Hogan, "Syria Looks for Big Wheat Purchase," Reuters (29 August 2012): http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/08/29/us-grain-syria-idUSBRE87S0JJ20120829. For a more optimistic view see Suleiman Al-Khalidi, "RPT-FEATURE-Syria's rural economy adapts as conflict spreads," Reuters (29 August 2012):
http://in.reuters.com/article/2012/08/29/syria-economy-rural-idINL6E8JT9GD20120829

20) Joshua Landis "Rami Makhlouf: Is He Being Sacrificed? Is the Syrian Economy the Achilles Heel of the Assad Regime? WINRP Pushes for Sanctions on Syrian Oil." Syria Comment (June 16, 2011).

21) Colum Lynch, "Syrian Shadow Boxing," Foreign Policy (3 August 2012). The Soviet Union’s Middle Eastern policy style "boiled down to opposing the United States" (see "The Syrian Cataclysm or the End of Soviety-Style Policy in the Middle East," Novaya Gazeta (29 April 2011).

22) Mark Katz, "Moscow’s Marine Head for Syria," Foreign Policy (10 July 2012). According to Katz, when the Syrian National Council visited Moscow in 2011, it offered to let the Russians stay in Tartus (perhaps as part of a deal in which they would orchestrate Assad’ stepping down?). Claude Salhani offers a clear, concise explanation of base’s strategic importance in "Does Russia Hold the Key to the Syrian Crisis?" Huffington Post (9 August 2012). Sent 11 ships towards Tartus?

23) Russian flotilla: "Syria's Opposition Appeals for Russian Support." BBC News (11 July 2012). Also Ellen Barry, "Russians and Syrians, Allied by History and Related by Marriage." New York Times (1 July 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/02/world/middleeast/for-russia-syrian-ties-complicated-by-marriage.html?ref=todayspaper

24) ARMS: copters NC from June; "United States Expects Russia to ‘Break with Assad,’" RIA Novosti (30 August 2012): http://en.rian.ru/politics/20120830/175509909.html. For arms sale statistics see Asawin Suebsaeng, "CHARTS: US Overseas Arms Sales More Than Tripled in 2011," Mother Jones (29 August 2012): http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/08/charts-us-arms-sales-overseas-triples. "United States Expects Russia to ‘Break with Assad.’" RIA Novosti (30 August 2012): http://en.rian.ru/politics/20120830/175509909.html. Eduard Pesov and Olga Samofálova, "‘Intervention in Syria Is a catastrophe,’ Says Lavrov," Pravda (28 August 2012).

25) "Arab League Calls on Russia to Stop Giving Syria Weapons," Arab News (21 June 2012): http://www.arabnews.com/middle-east/arab-league-calls-russia-stop-giving-syria-weapons
Iran is now Assad’s major source of arms and ammunition; see Michael R. Gordon, "Iran Supplying Syrian Military via Iraqi Airspace," New York Times (4 September 2012); also Zaid Sabah and Yeganeh Salehi, "Syrian Rebels Threaten Civilian Flights to Halt Weapons," Bloomberg (31 August 2012): http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-31/syrian-rebels-threaten-civilian-flights-to-halt-weapons.html

26) Amal Mudallali, "Russia's Fear of Radical Islam Drives Its Support for Assad." Al Monitor
(27 July 2012). For the Russian domestic contexrt see David M. Herszenhorn, "Radical Islamic Attacks in a Moderate Region Unnerve the Kremlin, New York Times (25 August 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/26/world/europe/radical-islamic-attacks-in-moderate-region-unnerve-kremlin.html?_r=1&pagewanted=al 
27) For the growing radical influence: David D. Kirkpatrick, "Concerns About Al Qaeda in Syria Underscore Questions About Rebels," The Lede: New York Times (21 August 2012): http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/21/concerns-about-al-qaeda-in-syria-underscore-questions-about-rebels/?ref=middleeast; and John Irish, "Jihadists Join Aleppo Fight, Eye Islamic State, Surgeon Says," Reuters (8 September 2012). Nickolaus Von Twickel, "Son of Chechen Warlord Dies Fighting Assad." Moscow Times (23 August 2012): http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/son-of-chechen-warlord-dies-fighting-assad/466997.html; "No Chechens fighting in Syria - official," RT (22 August 2012): http://rt.com/politics/chechens-fighting-syria-official-282/ From the Russian media (but based on Reuters reporting): "Tomorrow’s foes? Syrian Rebels Fear Foreign Islamist Fighters Are ‘Too Extreme’" RT (8 August 2012): http://rt.com/news/extreme-islamic-jihadists-syria-161/ (unexpectedly, it notes that "most Syrian rebels are young Sunni Muslims from poor rural areas" rather than foreign jihadis). "Syria Accuses Turkey of Allowing Al-Qaida members to Cross into Its Territory." Washington Post/AP (16 September 2012).

28) Edward Burke, "Let Russia Show the Way on Syria," New York Times (11 June 2012). Russia’s concerns probably extend much further afield into Central Asia, where an affiliate of Al Qaeda has been active (see Ben West, "The Tajikistan Attacks and Islamist Militancy in Central Asia," Stratfor [23 September 2010]).

29) For Putin’s concept of sovereignty see Konstantin von Eggert, "Why Russia Is Standing by Syria’s Assad," BBC News (15 June 2012); the author is a commentator on one of Moscow’s FM radio stations. See also "Moral Rhetoric Masks Western Self-Interest." RT (5 September 2011): http://rt.com/news/syria-west-intervention-nato/ (Note comments by professor at French university and another at an American university to lend weight to Russian POV on NATO’s intervention in Libya.) A contrasting view is that Russia needs to update its notion of sovereignty: "Russia Must Rethink What Syria Protests Mean," Editorial, Christian Science Monitor (2 February 2012). For R2P see William H. Luers (interviewed by Bernard Gwertzman), "The UN’s Mideast Struggles," Council on Foreign Relations (14 February 2012).

30) Colum Lynch, "Syrian Shadow Boxing," Foreign Policy (3 August 2012). "Libyan Scenario in Syria Unacceptable--Russian President." (9/14 September 2011).
31) Frolov, as quoted in Thomas L. Friedman, "Russia: Sort of, but Not Really," New York Times (4 February 2012): http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/05/opinion/sunday/friedman-russia-sort-of-but-not-really.html?scp=1&sq=friedman%20russia%20sort%20of&st=cse

32) Edward Burke, "Let Russia Show the Way on Syria." New York Times (11/12 June 2012).

33) "Lavrov Addresses Moscow Students on Syria." Voice of Russia (1 September 2012).

34) "Report: Syria Opposition Says Dialogue at Dead End." Arab News/AP (9 September 2011): http://www.arabnews.com/node/390354. Note the date of this item, a year ago, and Russian diplomacy is still essentially on the same track.

35) Burke (see note 32). For another assessment see Alan Philips, "Moscow and Washington Defy Logic in Spat Over Syria," The National [United Arab Emirate] (15 June 2012).

36) Olga Khazan, "What It’s Like to Report on Syria: A Reddit IamA with The Post’s Liz Sly." Washington Post (16 August 2012): http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post/what-its-like-to-report-on-syria-a-reddit

37) Richard Gowan, "Why Russia Has Assad’s Back," New York Daily News (10 June 2012).




 












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